& the Climate
Due to global warming, the ice caps are melting at an increasing rate. The chances of extreme weather are growing and the sea levels are rising. In recent years, this process takes place twice as fast as in the twentieth century.
For years, the sea level was expected to have risen by 85 centimetres at the most by the year 2100. In recent climate models (IPCC, KNMI, 2021), these predictions had been adjusted. Even if all countries live up to their climate promises, and we manage to limit global warming to two degrees Centigrade, we still run the risk of having a sea level of two metres higher by 2100. And subsequently, the sea level will keep on rising. How much this will be will strongly depend on the extent to which emissions will be reduced.
Can the Afsluitdijk still protect the Netherlands in the future?
Bij de aanleg van de Zuiderzeewerken en de Deltawerken werd uitgegaan van een zeespiegelstijging van slechts veertig centimeter. Het huidige Deltaprogramma gaat uit van een maximale stijging van éen meter in 2100. Bij het ontwerp van waterkeringen wordt bovendien rekening gehouden met een storm die eens in die tienduizend jaar kan voorkomen.
Na de renovatie voldoet de Afsluitdijk weer tot 2050 aan de veiligheidsnormen. Of de aanpassingen voldoende zijn, weet niemand. Er is grote onzekerheid over de omvang en de stijging van de zeespiegel. Omdat het lastig is om maatregelen te nemen als je niet precies weet wat je te wachten staat, kiest Rijkswaterstaat voor ‘adaptief deltamanagement’: in kortere periodes vooruitkijken en aanpassen. Ondertussen worden opties verkend voor meer ingrijpende maatregelen voor het geval de toekomst zich ongunstiger ontwikkelt. De huidige aanpassingen zijn wel zo ontworpen dat de Afsluitdijk na 2050 gemakkelijk te versterken is tot het jaar 2100.
In school, in the street, youngsters support the climate
The resistance against climate change and its disastrous consequences is led by youngsters. By the people, they claim, who are not the cause of the disaster, but do suffer the consequences. They consider climate adaptation a mere eyewash. Safeguarding their future requires more than reinforced causeways and dykes.
‘You have to address the crisis, not just elevate the dykes’
Jesse van Schaik,
Fridays for Future Netherlands
It all started in 2018 with the Swedish Greta Thunberg. The then 15-year old pupil was worried about the greenhouse effect and tried to persuade her classmates to strike. When they refused, she took a protest sign and sat outside the Swedish Parliament all by herself. While faultfinders wondered what this little girl tried to achieve with her one-woman protest, she inspired millions of peers. The strike action, using the slogan Fridays for Future, by now has grown into a worldwide climate movement among youngsters who summon countries to live up to the promises negotiated in the Paris Agreement.
Like Greta, Jesse van Schaik (17) tried to convince classmates to take action, but eventually went on strike solo. As a thirteen-year old, she sat outside the Dutch Parliament with a self-made sign. ‘It was at a time when in Belgium thousands of schoolchildren took to the streets. In the Netherlands people remained quiet, but instead of grumbling about it, I went out and did it myself. I want to fight for my future.’
Jesse’s action was followed, too. Along with other schoolchildren, she founded Fridays for Future Netherlands. By now, this movement has more than one hundred active members and dozens of local groups that organise actions: from Roermond to Leiden and Leeuwarden. Jesse herself can be found on Dam Square every Friday to draw attention to a fair climate policy. Besides protesting, she campaigns for various environmentalist movements, takes part in occupations and citizens’ initiatives, and she helps writing letters to the European Commission.
Will these campaigns really bring change? Jesse does not know. But campaigning is better than staying idle. ‘I cherish the hope we can jolt people awake with our actions. The threat of the climate crisis is so ominous, but nobody seems to understand, otherwise we would panic.’
Her optimistic scenario is that we will indeed wake up in time and the tide can be turned. ‘In that case, I see a Netherlands with lots of windmills and solar panels, where we will have switched to locally and sustainably grown food and where polluting multinationals will be dismantled, because they have proven they do not fit in a healthy future. To me, this seems an auspicious future.’
Life on earth in 2050
In this episode, the young climate activist Jesse refers to the report of the international climate panel IPCC. The predictions made her ‘angry and scared,’ she says. What does the report say?
The report, published in August 2021, states that it is indisputable that the climate change affects the extreme weather and climate worldwide; heatwaves, floods and droughts. It is clearer than before this is caused by humans. The current measures to curtail greenhouse gas emissions are inadequate to prevent large-scale climate disasters, the climate panel writes.
But what mostly scared Jesse, and many people with her, is that the climate change may become irreversible. The panel mentions tipping points, when temperatures exceed a critical level and you get a domino effect of catastrophic consequences. From the report: ‘If we continue on this road, in the best scenario we head for a warming of three degrees Centigrade. This would mean the end of life as we now know it. Life on earth may be able to recover from drastic climate changes by evolving into new species and creating new ecosystems, but people are unable to do this.’
Read more about the report on the IPCC website: www.ipcc.ch
‘We don't have to give up our country yet’
Technically, the sea-level rise is not necessarily a problem for the Netherlands, according to Bas Jonkman, professor of Hydraulic Engineering at Delft University. But we have to prepare ourselves for a major overhaul. ‘Staying idle is not an option.’
The young members of Fridays for Future think the Afsluitdijk will not save us. How do you feel about this?
‘For the time being, the Afsluitdijk and the other dams and dykes will save us. The Netherlands has almost four thousand kilometres of primary weirs. A third of these fail to meet the current safety standards and will be adjusted. This means that, apart from a major overhaul, the weirs will be adjusted to the latest findings about sea-rise levels. When constructing the Delta Works, engineers took into account a rise of forty centimetres; today this is generally eighty centimetres. This is probably sufficient for the next 100 years.’
How many metres can the Netherlands handle?
‘We can easily reinforce the current system to withstand a rise of one metre. If the sea level rises more or faster, from one to three metres, we will have to scale it up. We are able to do this, albeit with a major effort. The first problems will arise at movable storm surge barriers like the Maeslantkering near Rotterdam, which will have to be replaced by a new movable weir or a fixed dam. This will have consequences for the ecology and the accessibility of the port, which may necessitate a third Maasvlakte for large-scale port operations. But it also offers opportunities. Because water levels can be better monitored, Rotterdam can develop the waterfront for living and recreation.’
Even if the sea level rises more than three metres, there are possibilities. But the impact will grow and grow. For now, I don’t think we will have to surrender our country and withdraw, but this doesn’t mean we can sit back.’
‘Now is the time to make plans for what the Netherlands should look like in fifty years’ time’ Bas Jonkman,
Technische Universiteit, Delft
The Netherlands is on the eve of a huge overhaul. How do we prepare for this?
‘Anything over a three-metre rise will have serious repercussions. So, it’s crucial to look closely at the intermediate period: Which choices will we make when the sea level rises two to three metres? What are the consequences? This roughly pertains to the second half of this century. It would be wise to do an exploratory study now of what we want the Netherlands to look like by then. We Dutch use a polder model. The planning and lead time of far-reaching decisions is lengthy in the Netherlands. The construction of large delta works takes twenty to thirty years. If you imagine you will have to alter everything and you make a back-calculation, you realise the time has come to make concrete plans. Especially for the regions that will suffer the consequences first, like the Rijnmond. And what will we do with the Oosterschelde if the current flood barrier will not suffice anymore or has to be closed often?’
The measures demand billions in investments. Can we pay for this?
‘Today, we annually spend one billion euros on flood protection, which is less than 0.15 percent of the GDP. For comparison: We annually spend 1.5 percent of the GDP on defence, ten times as much. To pay for the new delta works, the annual expenditure should be doubled to two billion. This won’t be a problem as long as the GDP grows. Only if the sea level rises for a long time and much faster than the economy grows, the surrender of regions will be put on the agenda.’
What are you worried about?
‘Technically and economically, it’s possible to protect ourselves against a rising sea level. But I am afraid the polder model will delay decision-making processes and a disaster has to happen first before we’ll sit down and think about drastic adjustments.
I’m also worried about unexpected events, like the floods of last summer. The government may spend one billion on dyke reinforcements, but at the same time one third of the dykes do not meet the safety standards. If you only look at the time the renovation of the Afsluitdijk takes, it will take quite some time before this will be solved.’
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